Biweekly Trading Update #3: Trading without Indicators
Over the weekend my trading strategy changed drastically. At first I decided to let indicators completely rule my trading strategy; however, I quickly ran into issues with that ideology. My trading turned into gambling, and could easily be replicated by a simple program. To combat this issue I pushed back-testing indicators from the prior weekend to after I solidify my technical, sentimental, and fundamental analysis. I started learning Naked Forex, order flow analysis, and price action analysis over the weekend, and have started practicing them during the weekday. Although my win percentage is fairly low, I found that my analysis is getting stronger with each trade I take. My first trade was on the 30 min EUUSD chart. I saw that the market was entering an ascending triangle and started to expect a bullish breakout. I looked at the market sentiment on fxdaily, and saw that most of the market was bearish. I assumed that the bearish presence in the market were the retail traders, and assumed that the market would move in the opposite direction of their expectations. I used order flow analysis to find the momentum and projection of the market, and ended up placing a buy stop in order to catch the market on the expected breakout. One thing I did not factor was multiple time frame analysis. I did not see that the market had entered a channel, and that I placed a trade when it had hit the resistance level. The price reached my buy stop, but proceeded to drop until it hit my stop loss. As I went back to analyze my technical analysis, I found that I misread the order flow. I also realized that there were many parts of technical analysis that I didn't factor in, such as multiple time frame analysis, major support/resistance levels, and Fibonacci levels. I also decided to take more precaution when looking at the market sentiment, and try back-testing that data before basing another trade off of it. Although this trade was a loser, I still learned a great deal from it, and feel like I benefited more than my previous trades. The chart analysis was tough to begin, but progressively got easier as I looked for more and more trades. For the time being I decided to stick with the EUUSD, and exclusively look for repeating market behavior and reactions in order to strengthen my market sense and improve my technical analysis before I start back-testing and using indicators. I also have started to pay more attention to candlestick patterns and their link to trend behavior. Overall I believe that improving my technical analysis is a step in the right direction for my trading journey. I finally feel like i'm trading with my own mind rather than being overly reliant on the indicators on my chart.
As someone new to Forex trading, I'm spending most of my available free time reading books and watching videos all about trading (Risk management, fundamental/technical Analysis, trading psychology). What I repeatedly read and hear is that trading is easy and consistantly profitable trading is 60% psychology, 30% risk management and 10% strategy. The latter is from Adam Khoo. If strategy really plays such a small role, why is it so difficult to create a profitable algo bot? Bots don't care about psychology and risk management is simple to program. They are 100% consistant. So I can't see how this is true. You could argue that humans take some factors into account which cannot be automated. But what are these? Most strategies I find use technical indicators and candlestick patterns - very simple for a bot to automate. "It's all about risk management". Risk management and psychology doesn't matter if new traders haven't found an edge yet, which is probably the most difficult thing to figure out. Without knowing the edge, risk management can't help you. So my question is, if finding a strategy is only a small part of becoming a profitable trader, why is it so difficult to create profitable algo bots?
I created a technical indicator based on neural networks
Hello, I'm a PhD student specialized in machine learning and I've been fascinated about the Forex markets since 2009. I've recently finished a technical indicator that I've been designing for the past... many years. I was wondering if you guys were interested at checking it out. I'm posting a sample of the indicator for the AUD/CHF market (https://imgur.com/2sKVSu6), using a 4-hour timeframe. Please tell me if you are interested on a particular market/timeframe and I'll post a pic of it. Basically, if the price (white line) is in a orange-red area, it means it could stagnate. If it's in a blue area, it is moving fast. But the interesting part is that you can see that the price will soon reach an orange-red area (so you should stop trading, or not start a trade) and if it's moving towards a blue area, it will most likely become wild. I've traded for 1 week until now using it and I've made 0.6% of profit (I like to trade very small lot sizes in Oanda). I'll keep trading and hopefully I can move to use this indicator alone (plus common sense) in the future. I use it for Forex markets, but if you're interested in other markets tell me (it should work for other markets too). Just make sure it's listed in Oanda's assets (I use their API to get the data). EDIT: You can try it for yourself using this link: http://predictus.ngrok.io/index.html it's hosted on my machine, the front-end is badly programmed and there's literally no error catching. In other words, it will most likely explode sooner or later. Also, I'm using ngrok and I think it limits the number of connections, so I wish you luck. EDIT2: The price line is now a candlestick chart. I think it's way clearer this way. Also, the server seems to be more stable now.
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Technical & fundamental news on currencies.I would advise newer traders not to trade solely on external opinions because that won't cement your own methodology or reasons for trading.Excellent website for if you want an overview of the markets and daily reports. Also includes a trading journal and a lot of media attention.
This is absolutely amazing! I can't put a value on this! It's one of the best gems of the internet. Podcasts interviewing successful traders, some are notable such as 50pips, Walter Peters & Chris Kapre.
One of the best free online schools which tracks your progress and teaches you heaps on information. The forum is the gem, where many people keep trade journals and put up their strategies. Don't copy them but borrowing concepts and ideas is good.
SUPER IMPORTANT This website is paramount to your success, still in development but will provide users with an easy way to document trades. Success is determined by your willingness to follow through with the boring bits so keep this one in your bookmarks.
The common trait he sees in successful traders, how long it took him to become profitable, the most important trade that made him successful, his favourite books and why they both like Jessica Peletier.
A warehouse worker went through his trials and tribulations to be given the offer of managing an $80 million fund. How he started with $800 and no clue what to do, 2 biggest mistakes he sees traders making, how he continues to improve and what has happened to his lifestyle since becoming a full-time trader.
How Timothy Sykes inspired her, what minimalism is all about and how it's spread to every facet of her life, what her single pair to trade is, what the 2 best traits for successful traders are and plenty more!
What plastic bottles have to do with trading, how much money you need to have to be properly funded and go full-time, how much work you have to do and how long it'll take to get there, 2 best traits to have and loads loads more!
Can you actually trade from a beach? The use of hypnosis to make him a better trader, the method that works with his psychology, how much you need to get started, how long it took him to become profitable and what he would do differently if he had to start over! plus loads more!
Personal Favorite I love this guy because he's true and noble. He is philanthropic, offers trading courses that are cheap and really knows what he's talking about. He explains how a 3 second glance can stop you 2nd guessing yourself, how much he made with $3000 in 6 months and plenty more!
How he's turned some traders around in 30 minutes, why you never trade on a monday, the courses he bought, why he teaches outside the classroom and why he sent his kids to learn chinese.
Edit - I've spent about 2 hours making this now. I hope you guys find it useful! I'll continue to update it and may you all find trading success. If you want to help me out spread the link! put it on forums or share it with friends. Good luck to you all and happy trading! Edit 2 - My brain is fryed... time for a rest. Edit 3 Once I've categorized this post making it easier to navigate i'll be adding books to read, videos to watch & the traders that will help on your journey to self-sufficiency. Happy trading everybody!
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